Davao City, PH (6 May 2013)–The results of the second part of the electoral survey conducted by the University Research Council (URC) of the Ateneo de Davao University (ADDU) will be disseminated in a special public forum this afternoon, 6th May 2013, at the Finster Auditorium, to be attended by some of the respondents themselves, including officials from the different barangays, members of people’s organizations (POs), nongovernment organizations (NGOs), representatives from the Davao Association of Colleges and Schools (DACS), members of the media (both broadcast and print), other identified sectors, among others. The survey results will be presented by Ms. Lourdesita Sobrevega-Chan, the Chairperson of the URC, Ms. Mildred Megarbio-Estanda, the Director of the Social Research, Training and Development Office (SRTDO), and Mr. Martin Escobido, the Chairperson of the International Studies Program.
This second dissemination of results today forms part of the electoral survey which the URC conducted for Blue Vote 2013. Blue Vote 2013 is an initiative launched by ADDU in February that looks into the political-electoral engagement of the university community as a way of raising greater public consciousness toward more sustainable, objective, issue-based, empirical and comprehensive electoral education not only within ADDU but the greater community of Davao City. This university-wide election-related engagement was initiated by the University Community Engagement and Advocacy Council (UCEAC) headed by Atty. Romeo Cabarde, Jr.
This second part of the entire poll survey (the first part being an in-campus electoral study participated in by stakeholders within the ADDU community itself, the results of which were released to the public on 23rd April 2013) covers respondents coming from the three (3) districts of Davao City. This part of the electoral survey has similar objectives with the in-campus poll survey conducted earlier: Firstly, to gather election-related information that will be used by ADDU for future university database; and secondly, to gather issues and concerns for the community to be presented to both the local and national candidates in the hope that these will be included as areas that need to be addressed through policies and legislations.
Respondents from All Over Davao City
The number of respondents totalled 1,458, with an almost equal number of male and female at 49% and 50.6%, respectively. They are spread in several age group brackets, with around close to a quarter of them coming from the 25-to-34-year-old (24.6%), as well 35-to-44-year-old (22.2%) age brackets. The number of first-time and relatively young voters (18-to-24-year-old) is also worth noting, at 15.2%, with a slight 3% increase among the middle age group (45-to-54-years-old) at 17.9%. More respondents come from District 1 (37.3%), followed by District 2 (32.9%), and District 3 (29.8%).
These are the highlights of the poll survey:
Source of Information
When it comes to knowing the platform of the candidates, more than half of the respondents identified television as a major source of information (65.1%), followed by radio (32.6%), with a close to even percentage on the use of newspapers/periodicals and print ads/posters at 19.7% and 18.9%, respectively. Interestingly enough, the grapevine (tsismis/hisgot-hisgot) also figures at 17.8%.
Issues and Concerns at the Local Executive and Sangguniang Panglungsod Level
Slightly more than a third of the total number of respondents (35.8%) listed peace and order situation and unemployment (32.2%) as two of the most important issues and concerns which must be dealt with at the local executive level. Criminality/drug problem and graft and corruption are not far behind with 29.4% and 27.9%, respectively. Poor quality of infrastructure (23%) and poor health services (20.1%) also figure fairly well at the survey.
With the figures almost evenly spread out, the respondents cited the following issues and concerns which the incoming local councillors should address: Unemployment, peace and order, poor quality of health services, and graft and corruption; rising criminality, poor infrastructure and environment-related problem count as the last three, respectively.
Priority for Local Legislation
Education figures highly as a topmost priority when it comes to local legislation, garnering a percentage of slightly above half of the respondents (52%). Interestingly enough, there are more among this number of respondents who signified that basic education (36.6%) should be given special attention over education at the tertiary level (15.4%). At any rate, health comes in second (37.7%), distantly followed by food security (27.6%), employment (25.8%) and housing (23.3%). Peace and order is a concern not much expected in terms of local legislation when it posted only 20.4% among those who responded.
Priority for National Legislation and Budget
Consistent with the local government, educational reform is listed as an important legislative priority agendum in the national level that deserves funding from the national government. The respondents also established a pattern in their answers in that next to education are agenda for health, food and poverty alleviation–areas that certainly need the national government’s financial support. Though peace and order situation and population may have figured in the national legislative agenda, the respondents do not think that these deserved to be funded.
Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF)
Otherwise known as the community development fund (CDF), the PDAF should prioritize the giving of scholarships to poor but deserving students (47.4%). This particular highlight mirrors the overwhelming concern for education/educational reform which surfaced in the early part of the survey regarding priority agenda for both the local and national governments. The respondents also expressed that the use of the PDAF should be directed to providing medical and/or health-related assistance (between 27.1% to 23.2%), especially to poor and indigent families. This also reflects the concern for health services which come out as another important national agenda that need government funding. But what must be noted here is that only 16.9% of the respondents agreed that the PDAF should be used to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals.
Preferred Leadership Traits among Candidates
A good track record in public service (33.1%), consistency in the implementation of laws (24.1%), knowing the workings of the bureaucracy (23%) and a concrete record of having passed laws and ordinances (22.6%) are preferred by the respondents as important leadership traits among this year’s electoral candidates. Of course, these candidates should also have a vision of leading and must be able to articulate it well (19.5%). They must have the capacity to work well with others including their political opponents (19.3%), be truly aware of the actual situation on the ground (19%), and must display gender-sensitivity (18.1%). And yet, it also helps if these candidates are associated with a political dynasty (coming from a prominent political clan) [19.3%]. On the flipside, endorsement from higher government officials (15.4%), membership in a political party (15.4%), and political incumbency (14.7%) figure less in the survey, and neither does toughness in going after violators of laws (13.6%), though it must be noted earlier that they want somebody who consistency implements laws.
Preferred Personality Traits
Foremost among the respondents’ preferences are sincerity (51.8%) and mass appeal (approachable by the common people) [42.3%] when it comes to choosing the personality traits of the candidates they would most likely vote in this year’s elections. A distant third is fair treatment of people (26.9%), followed by integrity, equality in how they treat their constituency, and having the heart for the poor and the oppressed. And yet, outstanding record, sense of focus, higher education, credibility and charisma matter less. Interestingly enough, though many used television as the major source of information on and about the candidates, regular appearances on television and on radio are not sure guarantees for success, figuring less at an insignificant rate of 1.9%.
National Senatorial Elections
There is disparity as to how respondents view the candidates being known (knowability or popularity factor), over what they would most likely and eventually prefer to vote for. The following are the candidates whom the respondents claimed they know: Chiz Escudero, Loren Legarda, Miguel Zubiri, JV Ejercito-Estrada, Grace Poe, Allan Cayertano, Cynthia Villar, Koko Pimentel, Jackie Enrile, Sony Angara, Nancy Binay, Bam Aquino, Ramon Magsaysay, Antonio Trillanes, Gringo Honasan, and Risa Hontiveros. And yet, they would prefer to vote for the following senatorial bets: Escudero, Legarda, Zubiri, Ejercito-Estrada, Poe, Cayetano, Angara, Aquino, Pimentel, Binay, Enrile and Trillanes. These candidates, therefore, made it to the Magic 12, as far as these Davao respondents are concerned.
It would appear in the results that more women would vote for the candidates listed as the top choices, with the exception of Escudero who is preferred by both sexes, registering at slightly more than half of the respondents (55.7% among the males, and 52.6% among the females). Escudero is the only candidate who is preferred by at least 50% or more of the respondents, either male or female, Catholic or non-Catholic. Religion is not much of a factor for those who would vote for Legarda, Angara, Cayetano, Binay, Hontiveros, R. Magsaysay and Honasan, as there seem to be a fairly even number of respondents, both Catholics and non-Catholics, who listed them as their senators of choice, with a margin ranging from 1.7% to 3.1%. But more Catholics, over non-Catholics, would vote for Ejercito-Estrada, Zubiri and Poe, registering a margin of around 7.8% to 11%, followed by Aquino, Escudero, Villar and Trillanes, posting a margin of 3.9% to 5.9% among Catholics, in comparison to their non-Catholic counterpart.
In terms of age distribution, there are more respondents in all age groups, ranging from as low as 51.1% to as high as 60.8%, who identified Escudero as their topmost choice for the senate. He is the only candidate who is preferred by more than 50% of the respondents in different age brackets, followed only by Legarda and Ejercito-Estrada who managed to get the nod of slightly more than half of the respondents aged 55-years-old and above. More seasoned respondents in this particular age group (that is to say, those who have participated in many elections) would vote for the candidates listed as top choices in the senatorial race, with the exception of Villar who is mostly preferred among those between the ages of 35-to-54 years old. There are a fairly equal number of respondents from different age groups who posted Aquino and Honasan as their senator of choice, with a margin that ranges from less than 1% to slightly above 1%.
Choice of Party List
An overwhelming majority (83.2%) among the respondents have not yet made up their minds regarding their choice for party list. But for those who have (16.8%), close to 4% (at 3.8%) would prefer to vote for Bayan Muna, followed by A-Teacher at 3.4% and 1-BAP at 3.3%.
In the congressional race, Karlo Nograles, Mylene Garcia and Isidro Ungab are the top choices for the local congressional representatives in District 1, District 2 and District 3, respectively. These choices appear to be definitive as the margin for those who are undecided didn’t figure at all, at less than 1%. Of the three, Ungab, who is running unopposed, is the runaway favourite at a resounding 82.9%.
In the Sangguniang Panglungsod, two thirds of the total respondents (74.3%) of District 1 posted comebacking politician Mabel Sunga-Acosta as their first preferred local councillor, followed by Leah Librado, Edgar Ibuyan, Leo Avila, Joanne Bonguyan-Quilos, Bonifacio Militar, Melchor Quitain and Nilo Abellera. In District 2, there is a fairly even number of respondents who said that they would most likely vote for another Bonguyan (Louie), Danny Dayanghirang, Arnold Apostol, Al Ryan Alejandre, Malyn Cabling, April Dayap and Diosdado Mahipus. Bernie Al-ag (65.6%) and Kaloy Bello (65.1%) topped the list in District 3, followed by Myrna Dalodo-Ortiz, Rachel Zozobrado, Joselle Villafuerte, Jopet Baluran, and Rene Elias Lopez.
Since the father-son tandem of incumbent vice mayor Rodrigo Duterte and Catalunan Grande barangay captain Paolo Duterte is running unopposed, runaway margins of 87.2% and 79.4% are posted among those who said that they would vote for the Dutertes in the mayoralty and vice mayoralty race, respectively. Slightly below 2% are undecided for the mayoralty spot, while close to 10% among the respondents said that they remained undecided if they would vote for the vice mayoralty position.
Perceptions and Opinions on Mindanao and Davao City Elections
In this particular part of the survey, the respondents were made to rate several key statements on Mindanao using the 6-point Likert Scale of agree and disagree: With 1 for strongly agree, 2 for moderately agree, 3 for somewhat agree, 4 for somewhat disagree, 5 for moderately disagree and 6 for strongly disagree. Statements on Mindanao population growth, economy, economic growth, peace and order situation, social divide, infrastructure, and government social services were stated in positive terms, giving the respondents more leverage in appropriating their perceptions and opinions using the 6-point scale. The trend is that most respondents somewhat agreed on the perceptions about Mindanao’s growing population (more than 40%), its fast economic growth (above 30%), and improved peace and order situation (slightly below 40%). They also somewhat agreed that there is widening social gap that divides the rich and poor (above 40%) in Mindanao. The highest register for a somewhat disagreed answer (number 4 in the scale) was noted at close to a quarter (around 25%), where the statement asserts Mindanao’s faster economic growth rate, as compared to the rest of the country. Though most respondents somewhat agreed to it, there’s a sizable percentage of those who do not quite buy the idea. Slightly below half of the respondents think that Mindanao infrastructure has improved over the last few years. This is the highest posting for an agreeable answer in this category of questions.
A point of comparison between elections being conducted in Davao City in particular, and in Mindanao in general, garnered more patterned answers. In all the statements about elections being peaceful, clean and honest, orderly, and are truly reflective of the will of the electorate, it would appear that most respondents think highly of the conditions in Davao City, than in Mindanao as a whole. Davao voters are also perceived better because they base their voting decision on platforms rather than on personality or connections. Even the local COMELEC is perceived highly to be credible and competent.
In the overall though, respondents somewhat agreed that campaign ads have been focusing on issues and platforms. But on the issue of political family dynasty, there’s a notable tension between those who somewhat agreed and those who somewhat disagreed, as the percentages are closer and are catching up on each other. Asked if it is alright that a relative runs for the incumbent’s post, respondents seem to think it is, and yet they would rather not have family members sit in the same legislative body.
Generally, most respondents expressed being quite hopeful and excited about this May 13th elections.
Guided Off-Campus Poll Survey
This Davao-wide electoral survey is the first of its kind initiated by ADDU in order to determine the voting preferences and perceptions, and the voting patterns and behaviours of the city’s body politic, determining the “pulse,” as it were, of what are the likely issues and concerns, agenda, preferred candidates and other crucial factors that make up this year’s midterm national and local elections. With the Blue Vote 2013 initiative of ADDU, the URC (through the conduct of both the in-campus and off-campus surveys) has been able to get a scientific and empirical data of the university’s own voting preferences, side by side with the electoral choices of the greater constituency covering the whole of Davao City.
This Davao-wide electoral survey utilized an interview schedule/interview protocol in the conduct of the face-to-face interview with respondents. The interviews were administered by trained twenty-six (26) field enumerators comprising of selected faculty and young professionals of ADDU, as well as non-ADDU personnel (Christians, Lumad and Muslim). The survey employed three-stage sampling based on districts, sub-districts and barangay in the determination of sample, and had a margin of plus-or-minus 2.6 margin of error at 95% level of confidence. Actual respondents were identified using a standard algorithm that includes the use of HSBC starter points, die roll, right coverage rule, saturate the line, an end time of 4 p.m., and an interval of six (6) for urban areas and two (2) for rural areas. (By M. Isabel S. Actub of Arrupe Communications & Advocacy and Ms. Lourdesita Sobrevega-Chan of the University Research Council, ADDU)